AGI Prediction Markets
Real-money odds on when an Artificial General Intelligence announcement will happen.
Most likely window
Q3 2026
13% chance AGI announced this quarter
Kalshi · marginal probability
When do markets expect it?
Marginal probability per quarter — the chance AGI is announced in that specific window, derived from Kalshi cumulative markets.
Cumulative odds by deadline
Each row is the probability AGI has been announced by that date.
Deadline
Cumulative
Platform
Volume
Link
How to read this
- Marginal probability is the delta between consecutive Kalshi deadlines — the chance AGI happens in that specific quarter, not cumulatively. Q4 2026 at 12% means: if you believe the market, there's a 12% chance AGI is announced between Oct and Dec 2026.
- Polymarket resolves on an OpenAI-specific announcement; Kalshi is broader (any company). This is why the numbers differ.
- Real-money markets: Participants have financial stakes. Directional signals, not certainties.
- Data updated daily at 6:00 AM ET.
Last updated: April 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM UTC